POLY MOLYEGIG strategy observatory
needs attention
REAL-TIME RESEARCH · READ ONLY

Price the pair
protect the dollar.

Live Polymarket books, a walletless paper strategy, targeted PMXT replays, and hourly EGIG new-regime statistics.

System pulse00:00:00 UTC
snapshot 0suptime 0m 0serrors 0
EGIG NEW-REGIME PNLwaitingawaiting hourly Orbscan refresh
WIN RATE0.00%0 wins · 0 losses
TAKER FILLS0.00%0 executions · 0 last hour
PROFIT FACTOR0.000 closed positions
LIVE SHADOW MODE

Paper strategy decisions

paper strategy · $200 reset on every version change
PAPER BALANCE$200.00$0.00 realized · $200.00 cash
PAIRS LOCKED00.0% completion · $0.00 pending lock
UNPAIRED EXPOSURE$0.00directional first legs disabled
REACTION P95waitingsource print → modeled order acknowledgement
EVENT-DRIVEN GATE

Decision tape

live paired books · edge-sized orders
◎Waiting for executable paired edge

UP and DOWN must both be fresh, equally fillable, and worth less than $1 after modeled costs.

PAIR LEDGER

Recent paper cycles

0 started · 0 fills
◇No new-regime cycles yet

The ledger begins when fresh UP and DOWN books expose positive executable settlement value.

EXECUTION QUALITY

Can we capture the edge after costs?

0 qualified signals · 0.0% fill rate
median pair cost—
p95 pair cost—
median slippage—
profit factor0.00
max drawdown$0.00
1¢ stress PnL$0.00
2¢ stress PnL$0.00
3¢ stress PnL$0.00

A cycle is counted only when the visible books can immediately fill equal UP and DOWN shares and every marginal pair remains below its $1 settlement value after fees and the modeled price penalty. Size changes continuously with edge, depth, cash, and inventory; directional first legs are disabled.

DECISION & TRADE JOURNAL

Why the bot traded—or stayed out

0 decisions retained · 0 recent loaded
≡The decision journal starts with the next live price update

Every entry, skip, rejection, pair, and resolution will appear here with its rule and market context.

Repeated identical no-entry states are logged every 15 seconds. State changes and trades are logged immediately; the complete NDJSON history stays on the droplet.

HISTORICAL REPLAY

Targeted PMXT extraction

exact EGIG condition + token + expiry window range reads
BACKFILL STATUS

awaiting first run

queued
0 archive hours complete0 exact token targets0 retryable errors0 documented source gaps
QUEUE REPLAY

waiting for extracted rows

feasibility audit
↻Replay follows the extractor

Results appear here as soon as the first PMXT batch closes.

LIVE MARKET TAPE

Current five-minute rounds

Chainlink is the resolution reference · Binance is diagnostic
Waiting for market discovery…
EGIG NEW REGIME · HOURLY

Realized PnL by day

waiting for refresh

Calculated from EGIG's refreshed new-regime executions and closed positions. Dual-side markets: $0.00; single-side markets: $0.00.

OBSERVED BEHAVIOR

Adaptive inventory loop

0.0% dual-side · live inputs
01
Price the live opportunity

Compare both outcome books with the short reversal, normalized underlying path, spread, and available depth.

02
Build inventory in clips

Size each addition from current edge, volatility, liquidity, existing imbalance, and remaining risk—not a fixed share amount.

03
Improve the settlement floor

Add the complementary side whenever live all-in economics improve the guaranteed floor, while retaining only justified residual exposure.

COLLECTOR HEALTH

Feed diagnostics

inspect signals
Polymarket CLOB0 messages received
waitingwaiting
RTDS reference feeds0 price updates
waitingwaiting
Compressed archive0 files for —
0 Bon disk
tracked tokens0
persisted events0
extreme changes0
market refreshes0
DEBUG QUEUE

Recent errors

0 open
✓No collector errors

Both live feeds are producing fresh events.

Raw health snapshot
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  "generatedAt": "1970-01-01T00:00:00.000Z",
  "collector": {
    "state": "waiting",
    "startedAt": "1970-01-01T00:00:00.000Z",
    "uptimeSeconds": 0,
    "connections": {
      "clob": {
        "state": "waiting",
        "updatedAt": "1970-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
      },
      "rtds": {
        "state": "waiting",
        "updatedAt": "1970-01-01T00:00:00.000Z"
      }
    },
    "lastEvents": {
      "clob": null,
      "rtds": null
    },
    "counters": {},
    "subscribedTokens": 0,
    "recentErrors": []
  },
  "storage": {
    "day": "—",
    "files": 0,
    "bytes": 0
  },
  "paper": {
    "balance": 200,
    "availableCash": 200,
    "realizedPnl": 0,
    "totalFilledCost": 0,
    "totalPayout": 0,
    "cyclesStarted": 0,
    "pairedCycles": 0,
    "pairCompletionRate": 0,
    "unpairedPositions": 0,
    "unpairedExposure": 0,
    "pendingPairedPositions": 0,
    "lockedProfit": 0,
    "resolvedPositions": 0,
    "wins": 0,
    "losses": 0,
    "fillCount": 0,
    "qualifiedSignals": 0,
    "fillRate": 0,
    "profitFactor": 0,
    "maxDrawdown": 0,
    "maxDrawdownPct": 0,
    "maxConsecutiveLosses": 0,
    "decisionsLogged": 0,
    "stressPnl": {
      "1c": 0,
      "2c": 0,
      "3c": 0
    }
  }
}